Third Quarter Market Insights: Key Developments to Watch

As we approach the end of 2024, it's important to review the significant economic developments that occurred during the third quarter. Understanding these trends can help you make informed financial decisions moving forward. Here's an overview of the key highlights. S&P 500: Four Straight Positive Quarters The S&P 500 has recorded four consecutive positive quarters, marking an impressive run with seven of the last eight quarters in the green. This performance has rewarded long-term investors despite concerns over inflation, rising interest rates, and even the possibility of a government shutdown. Notably, for the third quarter of 2024, the S&P 500 rose by 5.53%, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.92%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 8.21%. Economic Outlook: Inflation and Labor Market Concerns Expectations of lower interest rates, combined with declining inflation, were a major theme during the third quarter. The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points signaled a “recalibration,” aimed at stimulating the labor market rather than responding to a struggling economy. While inflation has decreased in recent months, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing lower annual inflation rates, labor market data raised concerns. A notable revision in previously reported job figures revealed a reduction of 818,000 jobs over the preceding year. This slowdown in job creation may indicate a softening labor market as we move forward into the final quarter. Volatility and Market Reactions Despite the overall positive performance of the markets, the third quarter was not without volatility. August saw a spike in market turbulence, largely due to global factors such as the Japanese Yen carry trade. However, this volatility dissipated quickly, with the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) calming down by the first week of August. Labor market concerns and early September volatility led to some uncertainty, but the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates again helped to stabilize markets. The focus now is on whether these rate cuts will lead to stronger employment figures in the coming months without reigniting inflation. Fed Outlook and Treasury Yields At the end of the third quarter, markets were pricing in further interest rate cuts for 2024. The Federal Reserve is expected to make an additional 25 to 50 basis points of cuts in the coming months, with inflation data remaining a key determinant of future rate decisions. Another major development was the normalization of the 2/10 yield curve in September, ending its longest inversion in history. While some view this as a potential recession signal, others interpret it differently, leaving room for debate about the broader economic outlook. Looking Ahead As we move into the final quarter of the year, market trends remain heavily influenced by Federal Reserve policies and the upcoming election cycle. Long-term investors should remember that despite the noise of headlines, steady investment strategies continue to yield results. Schedule a Consultation with Clare Market Investments, LLC  If these third-quarter market developments have you wondering about how to position your investments for the future, we're here to help. Schedule a consultation with Clare Market Investments, LLC, and let’s discuss strategies to secure your financial future.

In June, diversified, long-term equity investors remained in control, buoyed by hopes for rate cuts and signals of easing inflation. Various economic data reports throughout the month pointed to a potential cooling in inflation, providing a favorable backdrop for continued market optimism. Major Stock Indexes The recent stock market rally has been significantly driven by the technology and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors. Notably, tech giant Nvidia has played a crucial role in pushing the broader averages, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, higher. For the month of June, the S&P 500 added 3.47%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 6.18%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.12%. Payroll Whopper The employment report for May, released in June, showed a surprising increase in job numbers, with 272,000 new jobs created, surpassing the estimated 190,000. This marked a significant jump from the 175,000 jobs added in April. The job gains were primarily seen in the healthcare, government, and leisure and hospitality sectors, signaling a strong economy and raising questions about the timing of any potential interest rate cuts. Supportive U.S. Inflation Data June brought positive news for those hoping for rate cuts, with inflation data showing promising signs of easing. Consumer Price Index (CPI): May's month-over-month pricing showed no increase, and the year-over-year increase was 3.3%, both below market expectations. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% compared to April, also below the predicted 0.3%. The annual core CPI rate decreased to 3.4% from 3.6% in April, further fueling market optimism. Producer Price Index (PPI): For May, the PPI for final demand unexpectedly fell by 0.2% on a monthly basis, contrary to expectations of a 0.1% increase. Core PPI remained unchanged in May, below the expected increase. Year-over-year, Core PPI decreased to 2.3% in May, below the estimated 2.4%. Fed Rate Decision & Outlook As anticipated, the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged at its June policy meeting and hinted at a more aggressive stance on future interest rate policy. The Fed has indicated that it is considering one rate cut in 2024. Chairman Powell stated, "We think policy is restrictive. And we think, ultimately, that if you just set policy at a restrictive level, eventually you will see real weakening in the economy." While not ruling out the possibility of rate hikes, Powell added that it is not the most likely scenario. Treasury Yields Steady/Quiet in June Treasury yields were slightly lower in June compared to May, with the 10-year Treasury Note Yield closing the month near 4.342%, about 17.3 basis points lower than May’s closing level of 4.515%. The steady to slightly lower rates during June were welcome news for mortgage borrowing activity, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage closing the month of June close to the psychologically important 7% level. The housing market appears to be in the midst of a shift as inventory has been growing in many areas. The Takeaway June featured a continuation of the rally that started in November, driven by excitement surrounding AI, steadier interest rates, solid economic data, and a supportive Fed outlook. The market expects rate cuts beginning in September, contingent on further evidence of cooled inflation. The Fed's data implies one cut in 2024. As we move into the second half of the year, if you have been considering your options in the financial markets or have ideas, feel free to reach out to Clare Market Investments LLC. We are always here as a resource for you. Don't forget to follow and like our social media accounts to stay updated on the latest financial insights and market developments!

Stock index investors commanded the financial landscape in May as major stock indexes resumed their rallies after consolidating in April. With the U.S. equity market indexes continuing the upward trend that began in November, it's the perfect time to recap the key developments over the past month. S&P 500: Rally Resumption The S&P 500, the broadest measure of the U.S. economy, clawed back from April's consolidation, closing at a fresh monthly high in May. This marked the sixth green month out of the last seven, making it the best May for the S&P 500 since 2009. Long-term investors certainly have reasons to celebrate! In May, the S&P 500 added 4.80%, the Nasdaq 100 surged by 6.28%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.30%. Tech Leads the Charge Technology stocks led the charge, with giants like Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta accounting for 76% of the S&P 500's gains. The information technology sector displayed robust earnings growth, the third highest among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, driven by companies like Nvidia Corp, Broadcom, Fair Isaac and Company, and Super Micro Computer. Fed Meeting Insights The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% during the May 1st meeting. The Fed's statement indicated that reducing the target range would require more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. Despite a slight dip in the S&P 500 following the meeting, the market responded positively to hints that a rate hike was not imminent. Earnings Surprises Fuel Optimism The attention then shifted back to the Q1 earnings season, which continued to bolster market sentiment. By May 31st, 78% of S&P 500 companies had reported positive earnings per share (EPS) surprises, and 61% had positive revenue surprises. Key contributors to earnings growth included NVIDIA, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. Consumer Sentiment: A Mixed Bag Consumer sentiment saw a 13% drop in May, as per the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, following minimal changes over the previous three months. However, consumer confidence improved later in the month, with the index rising to 102.0 from April's 97.5, surpassing forecasts. Inflation Data: Market Cheers The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April showed a 0.3% increase from March, slightly below the 0.4% estimate. Year-over-year, CPI rose by 3.4%, aligning with expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, saw a year-over-year increase of 3.6%, the lowest since April 2021, which pleased market bulls. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed an increase, with wholesale prices rising by 0.5% in April, above the 0.2% estimate. Core PPI rose by 0.5%, exceeding the expected 0.2% increase. Despite initial flat responses in stock index futures, the markets rallied following the favorable CPI data. Strong Labor Market Data April's employment data, released on May 3rd, revealed an increase of 175,000 payrolls, below the estimated 240,000. The slight rise in the unemployment rate to 3.9% was viewed optimistically, suggesting a potential for softer inflation data and future rate cuts. Looking Ahead: Fed & Future Prospects  The data at the end of May indicated a 99.9% probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the June 12th meeting, with a 14.5% chance of a rate cut in July. The highest probability for a rate cut is at the September 18th meeting, with a 53.9% chance. The Takeaway May was characterized by a resumption of rallies in major stock indexes, robust corporate earnings, slightly lower interest rates, mixed economic data, and a potentially supportive Fed. As we move into June, the S&P 500 continues to build on its momentum from May's final trading day. For personalized insights and strategic financial planning, schedule a consultation with Clare Market Investments, LLC today. Our experts are here to guide you through the evolving market landscape and help you make informed investment decisions.

April saw a reversal in the fortunes of major U.S. stock indices following a robust performance in March. Amid rising Treasury yields, the focus shifted towards corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting as the month drew to a close. Monthly Performance Snapshot The indices showed a notable pullback in April. The S&P 500 fell by 4.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 dipped by 4.46%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a decrease of 5.00%, rounding off a month marked by corrective movements across the board. Break in the Winning Streak After delivering impressive returns to investors in early 2024, U.S. stock indexes took a modest step back. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended their five-month winning streaks, experiencing their first negative month since October last year. This pause is a reminder that market trajectories are rarely linear. Inflation Dynamics Recent inflation figures paint a complex picture:  Consumer Price Index (CPI): The CPI for March rose by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, surpassing expectations and indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Notably, car insurance and shelter costs have surged, further straining consumer budgets. Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI data provided some relief, showing a milder than expected increase in wholesale prices. Despite a year-over-year rise, the day's market response was overwhelmingly positive, underscoring a cautiously optimistic outlook from investors. Federal Reserve's Stance The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 5.25% and 5.50% in its May meeting, signaling a cautious approach towards rate adjustments. The persistence of higher inflation rates suggests that discussions about rate cuts might be premature. Market Reactions to Fed Developments Initial reactions to the Federal Reserve's announcements were positive, with significant index gains. However, sentiment shifted later in the day, highlighting the market's sensitivity to the Fed's future policy directions. Interest Rate Trends April saw a continuation of rising interest rates in the open market, reflecting a decreasing likelihood of rate cuts within the year. The impact of these higher rates is palpable, particularly in sectors like mortgage lending, where rates have climbed significantly. Labor Market Overview The latest employment data presented a mixed bag, with payroll numbers falling short of expectations but offering a silver lining for rate cut proponents. This "bad news is good news" scenario suggests a potential cooling off, which could influence future inflation trajectories and Fed actions. Cryptocurrency Market Adjustments Cryptocurrency markets also felt the heat in April, with Bitcoin experiencing significant downturns. The changing interest rate environment and diminishing rate cut prospects played a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment in this sector. Earnings Season Highlights The earnings landscape was vibrant, with major tech companies like Alphabet and Microsoft exceeding expectations, buoyed by substantial AI investments. However, the broader market faced challenges from ongoing inflation and interest rate concerns. Conclusion April was a testament to the delicate balance between macroeconomic indicators and corporate performance. As Clare Market Investments, LLC continues to monitor these developments, we remain committed to providing our clients with timely and insightful analyses to navigate these complex market dynamics.

Quarter One Overview As we close the books on the first quarter of 2024, Clare Market Investments is pleased to share some encouraging developments from the stock market. The first three months have witnessed significant gains across major U.S. stock indexes, continuing the momentum from late last year. Stellar Performance of S&P 500 Notably, the S&P 500 has had its best first quarter since 2019. It recorded a remarkable 10.16% increase, continuing a five-month winning streak. This uptrend was initially driven by the AI sector, with companies like NVIDIA playing a significant role. The latter part of the quarter saw a broadening interest in other sectors, notably energy and communications, which attracted considerable investment. NASDAQ and Dow Jones Indices Follow Suit Following the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100 rose by 8.49%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a healthy increase of 5.62%. These figures reflect a robust start to the year, setting a positive tone for the upcoming quarters. Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics Inflation Concerns and Federal Reserve Actions The market has been closely watching the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding its inflation-fighting strategies. Despite concerns, there's growing confidence in a possible "soft landing"—where inflation is tamed without leading to a recession. The latest Consumer Price Index rose by 3.2% year-over-year, indicating that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, but the pressure for rate cuts persists. Labor Market Showing Strength The labor market has shown resilience, with nonfarm payroll data exceeding expectations for the first three months. However, revisions to earlier data suggest some cooling, potentially strengthening the case for upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. Looking Ahead: Federal Reserve and Market Expectations Future Rate Cuts? Despite leaving rates unchanged in the first quarter, the Federal Reserve hinted at potential rate cuts later in the year. Investors are hopeful, evidenced by market reactions to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statements. As we approach future Fed meetings, these expectations will continue to influence market dynamics. Uncertainties Remain It's important to note the uncertainties that lie ahead. Market conditions can change, influenced by numerous factors including economic data and geopolitical developments. The possibility of rate cuts will depend on continued positive inflation trends and other economic indicators. Market Sentiments and Investment Opportunities Crypto Markets Experience Volatility The first quarter also saw significant movements in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, for example, surged by 65%, driven by factors like the anticipated Bitcoin halving and increased ETF activity. However, the strength of the U.S. dollar and other factors introduced volatility as the quarter ended. The Importance of Long-Term Planning These market conditions underscore the importance of long-term investment strategies. While short-term fluctuations can affect market sentiment, maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial for achieving sustained growth. Invitation to Discuss Your Investment Goals At Clare Market Investments, we are committed to helping you navigate these complex market conditions and achieve your financial objectives. Whether you have questions about the latest market trends or need assistance with your investment strategy, we are here to help. If you're considering your investment options or want to discuss how these developments might impact your portfolio, don't hesitate to get in touch. Schedule a consultation with us today, and let’s explore how we can help you capitalize on these opportunities for long-term success.

DALLAS, TX – May 26, 2020 – Clare Market Investments, LLC, a Dallas-based Registered Investment Advisor, today announced relocation of its offices to a stand-alone, state-of-the-art building in Dallas, TX.  The move stems from Clare Market’s tremendous growth in the last year, and the firm’s desire to maintain close contact with its clients. Moving to a stand-alone facility was a proactive choice in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The larger space, outside of a conventional office tower, accommodates and reaffirms the firm’s growth strategy while protecting its employees, clients, and industry partners. “There were several reasons why we chose this particular time to relocate,” said Keith Rhodus, founder and managing member of Clare Market Investments. “Our commitment to growth and expansion was a major influence. The new offices offer an expanded footprint which affords us space to continue our growth. West Lovers Lane is an exciting and desirable part of town, surrounded by high-end retail, great restaurants, as well as professional offices, all within convenient proximity to Dallas Love Field Airport. Relocating to a stand-alone building affords us the ability to continue to serve our clients outside of a conventional office tower, in a less crowded environment that we can closely monitor and control.” About Clare Market Investments, LLC Clare Market Investments, LLC, is a cutting-edge, technology-savvy, registered investment advisor and financial planning firm serving individuals, family offices, and private family foundations. Please visit our website claremarket.com for more information. Media Contact: Priya Intwala Client Service and Operations Manager Clare Market Investments, LLC priya@claremarket.com 86 6 .659.1019 x705